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What are the Chances.......

Double posts guys double posts....as in dont double post.

If you dont think there is credible evidence that the lab has something to do with this virus then you are intentionally ignoring it. The coincidence is way to high. Nothing xenophobic about it. I would say the same thing if the lab was in my backyard. (For that matter Smithfield is 50 miles from me).
 
I am well aware Trump has done some very effective things in his term as president. But I think your political views are causing you to not look at this objectively. South Korea a free and democratic country got their first corona virus case the same day the USA did. They are thinking they will be going to baseball games at the beginning of May. Taiwan never shut down and has less than 400 cases. Australia has less than 7000 cases The results they and other countries have achieved are far better than the USA and Canada. Even Canada has not done as bad a job at this as the USA has and we are not doing great. So who is responsible for that?

And yes if the situation was reversed I am sure Trump would take all the negative press and continue to make a full on effort if it was China that was trashing him. (in case you did not notice the last sentence was sarcasm)
 
So the worst possibility thing here is that a lab that was not operated to the good standards of level 4 containment accidentally released the virus? There is no indication or proof of any kind that there was an intentional release of the virus. A guy from the Level 4 national virus lab here in Winnipeg illegally took Ebola samples from the lab and tried to take them to the USA for his research. He was caught at the border. If his car had crashed and the virus was released would you hate Canada. There is no proven intent to infect anybody in both scenarios there is neglect of proper handling of the virus. The Lab near Wuhan working on bats and virus makes perfect sense as bats are one of the common vehicles for mutation of viruses to humans. Our National virus lab here in Winnipeg is also working on the bat transmission theory. Do you suspect Canada Has a part in the creation of this virus?

Where are the facts here that say anything evil happened here.

Sorry for the double post. my apologies. I won't double post again.
 
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It will be interesting to go back through the data and try to understand why one area was hit hard and another wasn't. There appears to be good evidence that social distancing might not have changed things. You mentioned several good cases studies. There is good evidence that ignoring it or under certain conditions it goes extremely wrong. My own state is an example.

Oh...those facts. .look at the distance between the lab and the wet market. Look at how China tried to hide this. While you are at it listen to the interview with the WHO where he literally said he didnt hear the question. Then when asked a second time hung up the phone. This was when he was asked about China.

Back on topic.....I am still optimistic that retail sales will be good. Mixed blessings...the largest employer in my town is shutting down the week of the 4th. I could have insane sales or no sales. I know my numbers from previous years wont be a basis for sales this year.
 
Still can't see an intent here releasing the virus. Yes possibly an accident but really no evidence. The reason the who guy didn't answer same reason my prime minister didn't answer this morning about the Wuhan deaths. Same WHO guy has repeatedly pleaded with reporters not to politicize the pandemic so I'm not surprised he didn't answer the question. Later let's do this later we can't have politics resulting in the lost lives which is the way it's going to go. China has already put in place CCIQ export controls on all medical devices I know because I've been procuring PPE for my province. They are doing this to ensure only properly certified medical devices which means all PPE for hospitals is coming from properly registered factories that can deliver the standard that is necessary. There was lots of usable stuff that was coming out of the not registered factories. They've done this in response to all the complaining and portraying them is providing bad quality medical supplies.It's a part of China with a thousands of factories you'll always have a few crooked people that produce substandard products. This action has slowed the output of ppe and test kits. So keep complaining about China. Sometimes in a crisis you got to make the best judgment of what to do not just keep being righteous and indignant
 
BigTopCanada said:
And yes if the situation was reversed I am sure Trump would take all the negative press and continue to make a full on effort if it was China that was trashing him. (in case you did not notice the last sentence was sarcasm)
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Well, I would say US relations are about as bad as you can get with Iran...…….

“The whole world should know that humanitarian assistance to Iran is wide open, it’s not sanctioned,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said during a Friday briefing with President Donald Trump at the White House.

“We are doing everything we can to facilitate the humanitarian assistance moving in and to make sure that the financial transactions connected to that can take place as well. There is no sanction on medicines going to Iran, there is no sanctions on humanitarian assistance going into that country. They’ve got a terrible problem there and we want that humanitarian, medical assistance to get to the people of Iran,” the nation’s top diplomat added.
 
And Iran stopped complaining about the USA and USA stopped complaining about Iran when the Pandemic happened because it is in everybody's best interest. Why can't we stop complaining how about China. Iran is far more of a current military threat with their development of nuclear weapons and their anti USA ideology.
 
BigTopCanada said:
And Iran stopped complaining about the USA and USA stopped complaining about Iran when the Pandemic happened because it is in everybody's best interest. Why can't we stop complaining how about China. Iran is far more of a current military threat with their development of nuclear weapons and their anti USA ideology.
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BS..... Photos show nearly a dozen Iranian attack boats harassing US Navy and Coast Guard ships in 'dangerous' exchange

www.jpost.com

Iran is ramping up threats to US in Iraq - analysis

What appears to be going on in Iraq is some jockeying for position before the war. This is like the so-called Phoney War that preceded the invasion of France in April 1940.
www.jpost.com www.jpost.com

As far as military threats..... Iran is a pimple and your Humanitarian pacifist are ranked #3 in the world. But you're getting way off point trying to support your narrative.
www.army-technology.com

Top 10 World's Strongest Militaries: Strategic Supremacy:

Explore worlds strongest militaries, showcasing their prowess in defense capabilities & global security. Dive into military strength analysis
www.army-technology.com www.army-technology.com
 
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Guys--- We still have to be civil in some ways.

We are all entitled to our opinion and we are glad we live in the USA to allow this, I see that the protesters in HK have been rounded up and probably will disappear into the countryside some place(China's siberia)

I think our government wanted to make sure that our hospitals had all their resources BEFORE coming out and saying masks will curve the problems. We have opportunists in this country that hoarded products that could help people- waiting to make a killing, capitalism at it's best and it's was wrong. Toilet paper- really???

Yes, I'll make a statement. When I see people doing things because it's their right, even when it's wrong- that's when I get pissed. If I get the virus and die- so be it, I'll try to protect myself and my family to what I think and what doctors think. If my son gets it being autistic, that's when I'll get royally pissed when I have to watch him fighting to survive except he won't understand what's going on. Maybe it's the near sightedness of some people who only think of "ME".

I think of what would happen if our society had to go through the great depression or WWII, Or look back at the Balkan wars in Yugoslavia and see in 1984 when Sarajevo hosted the olympics and how it went down from there. Do you think our country OR Canada could survive that when we are arguing about a month or 2??

Thank about it. It shows how weak as a society we really are when we want material things more than things that matter.
 
Thanks for the lively debate. On many points I will agree to disagree. I learned something from you guys during the discussion and I hope you learned something from me. My only intention here was to introduce some new ideas to help all of us defeat this virus and save some lives.

There has been a question asked about who I am. I am a pyro just like you. I have been a PGI member and attended convections not every year but since 1996.
If you want reference on who I am you could ask the Northern Lighters. I had a container of cakes with faulty lift charge that I had In storage in the USA. I sold that container to the Northern Lighters for 1 dollar in 2011 because they could use the pyro material and they did charity shows for cancer charities.

One last idea for the tinfoil hat guys who think China started the virus on purpose. The Chinese are obviously technically capable of developing a vaccine. They also have a national vaccination program. They easily could have vaccinated all of China with the vaccine for the virus before releasing it. And the final thing what would be the reason to release the virus in their own country.

If you can argue your way past that reasoning you are way to far out there for me to reach you.
 
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I dont think I said they started it on purpose. I think they started it and hid it until they couldn't hide it any longer. A minor breach of containment in the lab...it gets out. Chinese culture is to not tell people bad news. They hide the breach while trying to contain it. They fail. No tinfoil hat needed. Anyone that has worked closely with the Chinese has seen similar things.
 
It would be amazing if you could go over time and see what man made to get control of something OR someone and then lost control of what they were doing. Look at some of the nuclear tests the Russians had in the 50's, we didn't have air tests back then that could detect radiation. Sad, but as long as you have MAN- it will happen.
 
Some treatment, therapy, vaccine - trials & timelines:

graphics.reuters.com

Lifeline pipeline

Status of upcoming vaccines, drugs and other treatments in the battle against COVID-19
graphics.reuters.com graphics.reuters.com
 
I agree completely with you Stuntborg on how the action against the Corona virus was delayed by the Chinese. Knowing as you do about how the Chinese government operates it probably started with local officials not recognizing how serious the threat was. Local Chinese governments are well known for trying to hush up anything that threatens their local economy or disturbs social order. It is proven that they were trying to discredit the people who were trying to sound the alarm. A doctor who tried to sound the alarm had his social media posts censored and he was arrested and jailed. By the time the federal Chinese government became aware the virus had already spread to many people. I am sure the actions of the federal Chinese government even after they were aware of the seriousness of the outbreak were delayed by bureaucratic inefficiency.

My governments both provincial and federal has also failed in many ways that have cost lives. All over Canada unmasked health care workers were going from care home to care home. This transmission has and will cost many lives. The borders were not controlled soon enough and the self quarantine for 14 days for anyone arriving from outside the was not as effective as many did not properly quarantine themselves. there was no action on the PPE supply until it became a problem even though they had months to prepare. I could go on and on but you only have to look to those countries that have been more successful at controlling the virus to see the failings of your own government. Governments had the information on what was working but did not act.

Complaining about all this now will do nobody any good or save any lives now. I feel what is needed is a grass roots movement to push the government to take the actions that will allow us to beat this virus. All the Social Distancing measures will only slow the spread in hopes the hospitals won't be overwhelmed. This is going to last for months with major damage to our economies if all we do is social distance.

The fact about the virus revealed by the testing of the whole population of Iceland shows that 2/3 of cases are non symptomatic. So the way the virus works is you have the virus and don't know it so you think you are fine and go about your business infecting everybody you come into contact with.
 
They have to open the borders- I need Labatts Extra Dry and Maximum Ice(canadian). I go over 2 times a year and stock up. I'll wait until things settle down because I love my Labatts- I wouldn't want to infect Yoopers or Canucks. Or even people above the knuckles(Look at your hand(trolls- We live below the bridge)). Life will go on- so will fireworks, Just be smart in what you do and think. Would you want to infect your family and for what?
 
I think both USA and Canada won't have a July 4th and 1st unless more aggressive measures are taken to stop the spread. Only a very small percentage of the population has been infected. There is no vaccine yet or proven drug treatment (we all are hoping there will be) and reality is not likely that we would have either one soon.

If we do only social distancing - In the USA it has taken a month full on since March 19 to reach 750,000 cases. If you go by the Iceland model and say 2/3rds non symtomatic you have 2.25 million people infected. If you say there is actually 10 times as many people as that infected that is 22.5 million people. So at that rate with the USA population at 328 million it would take 14.5 months for everyone to get immunity if it exists. Or if 73 times as many people as the iceland model shows are now infected and not tested it would go through the country in under 2 months and be done by mid June. then we might have a season.

So I think that unless we start at least using masks we will not have a July fireworks season.

If we did everything that science has to offer us to stop the spread I think we could do it in 6 weeks.

Hey Pyrohobie my family loves the states. we go at least 3 times a year some where in the USA. I am missing Kona Big Wave Golden Ale.
 
I think we will have a retail 4th. Large displays may get shut down. The data is starting to show we over reacted, which is probably a good thing. New cases are declining. Severity of cases is also going down. Use to be 5 percent were severe. Then 4. Now 3. People are also pushing back against the shelter in place orders. Stay locked up until Sept and there wont be any jobs left. We need to ease restrictions while also protecting our high risk people. This is where the talks are going now.
 
stuntborg said:
I think we will have a retail 4th. Large displays may get shut down. The data is starting to show we over reacted, which is probably a good thing. New cases are declining. Severity of cases is also going down. Use to be 5 percent were severe. Then 4. Now 3. People are also pushing back against the shelter in place orders. Stay locked up until Sept and there wont be any jobs left. We need to ease restrictions while also protecting our high risk people. This is where the talks are going now.
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40,000 people have died in the last month with social distancing and you think we over reacted stunt. Don't know where you are getting your numbers but in SE MI about 25% of the positive cases are leading the hospitalization and the death rate is close to 10% and I live in the county out of the big that has the least amount of cases. My wife works in the ER and a local hospital and has been a respiratory therapist for close to 20 years and like you thought it was no big deal a month ago but that changed in a hurry, normal vent level in the hospital is around 5, 7 -10 when really busy they were up to 51 people on vents the other day. N95 masks in a normal use are one room and then toss so that you don't infect another patient or yourself, now it is one mask for the whole shift. She now changes in the hospital, comes in the garage to shower immediately and spends most of her time on the opposite side of the house form everyone else since our grandson has a heart condition. Open everything up to fast and we topple a health care system and even more people will die then the first surge just check the history of the Spanish flu.

We need more PPE, test kits and local health personnel to contact trace new infections to open things back up. Just like distance is your friend when shooting fireworks the same applies to Covid 19 and the minute you stop respecting this virus it can kill you.
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