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What are the Chances.......

Blaster

Blaster

Active member
Joined
Jul 2019
Messages
43
You think there's any likelihood that we could see the cancellation of this years entire 4th of July Fireworks Season?

I mean, with the shutdown of so many venues for "congregation" concerns, could this actually last until then? Of course the coming weeks will determine how long the restrictions might get extended but, What If...

And what of the following, 2021, Season if China's ability to produce product gets curtailed? Leftover product for this year, If it were cancelled, might carry us through if fireworks companies could survive that long.

There might be big changes ahead, more than we recognize right now, for the industry as a whole. Overall I'm Optimistic, just my nature I guess, but some of this is starting to "creep in" ;) I don't want to have my head in the sand either!
 
I have a feeling that this situation is not going to end anytime soon. I think it's a very big possibility that schools will be closed the rest of the school year. Only time will tell... The good thing is that China seems to have it under control and now we need to get to that point.
 
Well, if the shutdown of public gatherings continues through the 4th of July, the last thing you'll have to worry about will be whether there are any fireworks, I can assure you of that. It will be just one of the many, many industries which will be crushed. Think about it, how many businesses do you know which could sustain a year's worth of revenue lost instantly (speaking about display companies here)? How many of the blue collar workers who will have been without any income for several months do you think are going to have the funds to buy fireworks (these make up the largest percentage of buyers of fireworks)? It doesn't matter how much money is passed along in any kind of stimulus package, if things continue down this path until beyond the 4th of July, there will be massive problems economically (there simply isn't enough money laying around for the government to artificially keep the entire economy going for that amount of time even if it wanted to so this isn't a dem/rep issue) and it won't simply be the fireworks industry that gets hit. Think of all the amusement parks, tourist areas, hotels, airlines, restaurants, etc, etc, it all ties together. But, to answer your question, if this continues past the 4th of July, there will be plenty of fireworks available for 2021 LMAO. And yes, even if somehow we were able to sell and shoot all the fireworks we have, China will keep producing as before although there will continue to be changes and challenges along the way provided we don't have to endure another pandemic next winter.

Now, that being said, my guess is there is some kind of numbers cruncher in DC (most likely a vast multitude of them) who is figuring out what each individual person's life is worth and at what point the damage from economic impact of a shutdown starts to move past the total dollar amount in lives lost. My guess is once the needle most over to the side of the impact from the crushed economy is now outweighing the value of xxx amount of lives lost to the virus, things will be opened back up.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not one of those folks who is insisting this isn't serious, or it's imaginary, or some kind of a conspiracy and we should open everything back up right this instance. I'm also not one of those people who doesn't care about other's or loss of life. I deeply care. I understand the "curve" and the reason behind it, but I'm a realist and these are things which have to be taken into consideration when you are making decisions.....tough ones....ones that I'm glad someone else has to make right now.
 
Tim, there is at least a semi-official US government number for "what is one life worth" and it is around $9 million. I think this comes from the Office of Management and Budget. It was calculated at $7 million to $9 million in 2012. This is a statistical number. For obvious political reasons, no politician will say that they would consider a 20 year old's life to be worth $8.5 million and an 85 year old's life to be worth $500K, although from an economist's viewpoint that's probably how it works. I'm sure glad I'm not a doctor in Italy having to consider who to put on a respirator if there aren't enough to go around.
 
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Time will only tell, these are uncharted waters we are dealing with. My friends in the medical field are my barometer of the seriousness and severity of this illness, it’s uncomfortably frightening and the new information that comes out on this virus just gets worse by the day. Personally my opinion is that the virus and it’s preventive measures effect will last for 5-7 months. The virus seems to mutate awfully quick and now there are 2 different strains out there.
 
MHPyro said:
I have a feeling that this situation is not going to end anytime soon. I think it's a very big possibility that schools will be closed the rest of the school year. Only time will tell... The good thing is that China seems to have it under control and now we need to get to that point.
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The Governor of Virginia just announced that all Virginia schools are done for the year. Now, I haven't read too much about this yet so I don't know if school classes are cancelled and is everything available for online teaching?
 
Well I guess Optimism isn't in everybody's nature here... ;)

I think it's much more likely that the "State of Fear" the Media and Paranoid produce (great book on this by Michael Crichton ~ btw) will be proven wrong. I hope we'll see a Flattening-of-the-Curve, from the procedures now in place, by the end of next month and many restriction could start to be relaxed.

I have friends who are conspiracy lovers, I say to them "The Gov of CA says they'll have 22 million infected", that might translate into 500,000 deaths in CA alone, the reply is "Oh,,, it'll be much higher than That!" They all so Relish the idea of knowing more, being smarter, than the "sheeple" who don't follow their paranoia. It makes them all so special because of the insight they have :D

I also think, as a country we're a lot more resilient then the Chicken Little's would have us believe. We'll get through this!
 
Sorry, was the Context not clear?

As Individuals we're certainly going to see a toll, a heavy toll maybe, but what I was saying was that as a Country, we'll get through this... ;)
 
Pyronut said:
The Governor of Virginia just announced that all Virginia schools are done for the year. Now, I haven't read too much about this yet so I don't know if school classes are cancelled and is everything available for online teaching?
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Many, many, colleges & large state university systems have closed in-person instruction and will finish classes this semester online. I have friends and family at these campus's.

Message to students about the transition to online learning
Total 2020 enrollment across all campuses: 171,636

president.utexas.edu

Moving to Online Classes

president.utexas.edu president.utexas.edu
Total 2020 enrollment across all campuses: 240,000.

Such disruption, the kids currently in college are screwed, moved off campus, online only classes, same tuition bills. Of course this a first world problem, while all manner of folks in the world are in extreme stress economically and health wise.
 
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With 100 drugs being studied and the high success rate (100% with 350 covid19 patients) of hydroxychloroquine and zinc by a doctor in New Rochelle, NY. I'm seeing blue sky. The potential of using antigens from recovered patients to treat the sick like was done during 1918 spianish flu pandemic. I'm thinking that by May we have more than 1 effective treatment.
 
Looking forward to our July 4th show in South Brunswick, NJ which is actually scheduled for July 1, rain date July 2.
 
Well, being 61 and shot for quite a few years- time changes a persons perspective on things. I've killed some big game in my life time and now it just doesn't seam that important. I've shot quite a few shows since being 18. If people were smart they would stop the traveling crap and stay put and let time cure or take the people without infecting anyone else. But- some of the youth in this country haven't been taught responsibility by their parents. So, hopefully things will get back to normal before too long.
 
Pyrohobie said:
Well, being 61 and shot for quite a few years- time changes a persons perspective on things. I've killed some big game in my life time and now it just doesn't seam that important. I've shot quite a few shows since being 18. If people were smart they would stop the traveling crap and stay put and let time cure or take the people without infecting anyone else. But- some of the youth in this country haven't been taught responsibility by their parents. So, hopefully things will get back to normal before too long.
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Doug,
You are so correct with kids sitting still! Our nephew and his Dad (bro-in-law) got into a huge fight yesterday about him going out and hanging with his buddies.
My inlaws next door are having this ongoing issue with our nephew. He's 23 years old and thinks he's indestructible. Here's the problem. My brother in law, who is 64 years old, has Rumatoid Athritis (sp) and has a seriously compromised immune system because of his medication and he just got home from an 8 day stint in the hospital.
Kids do not realize that there body probably will fight this virus and they wont skip a beat. It's others that are around them that they do not understand the severity of this. My bro-in-law was in ICU for almost 4 days. If he contracted this virus, I'd hate to think of the "other" scenarios we'd be facing.
 
Pyronut said:
Doug,
You are so correct with kids sitting still! Our nephew and his Dad (bro-in-law) got into a huge fight yesterday about him going out and hanging with his buddies.
My inlaws next door are having this ongoing issue with our nephew. He's 23 years old and thinks he's indestructible. Here's the problem. My brother in law, who is 64 years old, has Rumatoid Athritis (sp) and has a seriously compromised immune system because of his medication and he just got home from an 8 day stint in the hospital.
Kids do not realize that there body probably will fight this virus and they wont skip a beat. It's others that are around them that they do not understand the severity of this. My bro-in-law was in ICU for almost 4 days. If he contracted this virus, I'd hate to think of the "other" scenarios we'd be facing.
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The worse thing about this virus, is that it's mutating to different versions of the original. SO, kids that think they can't get it, well they are dying also. Kids that thought it was cool vaping- nope.

It sucks when you have to bury your siblings- worse yet is when you have to bury your kids. So, teach your kids that this is something don't mess with. But, they are the young bulls and cows in the pasture and they are going to do what they want to. They need to realize they are the future of this country.
 
This has been my response to people lately when they are talking about people not staying home during this:

Sadly, we live in a selfish "How dare you tell me what to do, I'm gonna do what ever I want to do" narcissistic society. 😞😔☹ This is why this virus is spreading so fast.

Go out for Grocery, medicine ( You don't have to hoard but pick up more then a 1/2 days worth of food/medicine so you don't have to keep going out twice a day, every day) and those that have an essential job that requires them to go out. But other then that, stay home people! Not sure why that's so hard for people to understand. :unsure::unsure:

Those people that keep going out and socializing like its no big deal only care about themselves and are text book narcissists in my opinion. Yeah, they may think they are invincible and hey, maybe for some odd reason at this point in their life they are. But everyone they come in contact with that they could be potentially spreading this virus too is not as amazingly awesome as them. Selfish, narcissistic pieces of :poop::poop: those people are.

Your right Doug, a lot of people for a while now have not been taught responsibility by their parents but I'm not even getting into how i feel about that because I'm sure someone will get all butt-hurt over it. 🤪🤪
Because you know, that's another big thing wrong with today's society, everyone is offended and butt-hurt over everything. 😱😱

Okay, Iv said my piece. Mad man out! :D
 
I'm in NJ which everyone knows by now is a hot spot. I have to say that most everyone is respecting the social distancing guidelines and staying home. When I visit my local grocery store it's hard not to notice the incredible lengths they have gone to, to protect the workers and the public. They have limited purchases of the most hoarded items.

My wife Kim who some of you know, is at very high risk if she should get the virus so I'm the only one leaving the house to get things we need, most things we have delivered.

That said I have very high hopes that by June we will be on steep decline in cases and by July 4th the shows will go on.

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