Yeah, he's pushing his biotech startup pretty hard lately through interviews. The only part they're missing so far is whether it would actually work in real people. And if so, how much could be produced in what time frame at what expense. We already know how to extract working antibodies from people who have recovered from a virus, it's just time-consuming, expensive, and limited in the number of people you could treat.
What are the Chances.......
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Fuse
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Insights #7 is the most coherent summation of virus estimates I've seen. COVID19 Insights #7 — COVID-19 Insights
goneshootin
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Bill some of our "experts" are using the IMHE model which said as of yesterday we would have over 121,000 hospitalized. The real number as of yesterday was 31,142. The federal government is using that flawed model as guidance when deciding to shut down and for how long. I don't care what the guy is pushing as long as he shares his data with those in a position to use it as a cure.
2017-2018 flu season we lost 80,000 people, an average of about 5k a month. So a little perspective is needed in face of non stop media fear porn. 200,000 people a month die in this country before we ever heard about covid19. NJ is a hot spot and we have about 300 deaths in a state of 9 million. 47% of those deaths were patients with diabetes, 23% heart disease and 21% were morbidly obese. Across the country 81% people diagnosed only end up having mild symptoms, 14% require hospitalization and only 5% end up being severe.
Also an international poll of more than 6,000 doctors released Thursday found that the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine was the most highly rated treatment for the novel coronavirus.
We need to restart the economy soon or we will have much bigger problems.
2017-2018 flu season we lost 80,000 people, an average of about 5k a month. So a little perspective is needed in face of non stop media fear porn. 200,000 people a month die in this country before we ever heard about covid19. NJ is a hot spot and we have about 300 deaths in a state of 9 million. 47% of those deaths were patients with diabetes, 23% heart disease and 21% were morbidly obese. Across the country 81% people diagnosed only end up having mild symptoms, 14% require hospitalization and only 5% end up being severe.
Also an international poll of more than 6,000 doctors released Thursday found that the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine was the most highly rated treatment for the novel coronavirus.
We need to restart the economy soon or we will have much bigger problems.
goneshootin
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No offense but that summation relies in part on data coming out of China. China is lying about covid19 data. It's increasingly being reported in the media and soon enough you will learn to what extent they lied.
The USS Comfort sits in NY harbor with a total of 3 patients. So we have a hospital ship with 1000 beds docked in the epicenter and it's only got 3 Patients?
Yeah, moving the hospital ship to NY to help with the coronavirus was apparently just for show, as they won't take coronavirus patients or allow onboard anyone exposed to coronavirus. As of yesterday they didn't allow ambulances to take anyone directly to the ship, the ambulances still had to take people to the regular emergency rooms and then they could be screened for coronavirus.
As of this morning, NJ's reported deaths was at 539.
It appears to me that people are not very good at mentally keeping the different numbers associated with the different scenarios. People hear "best case: 100,000 deaths" and don't really get that "best case" means "if we ignore everything else and totally focus on the virus". In the same way, "worst case: 1,750,000 deaths" means "if we do nothing special and claim that it's just like the flu". In very short order you see people claiming online "only 100,000 people will die of this, it's not a big deal, ignore it" and genuinely not understanding the part about "if you ignore it, the number of deaths will be an order of magnitude greater". And of course every expert asked gives not a single number but a range for both best and worst cases.
fivethirtyeight.com
Even if the experts' opinions were overall accurate, once this stabilizes you'll find plenty of people saying "They said 2 million people might die and that didn't happen, the experts are clueless" and plenty saying "They said only 100,000 people would die, the experts are clueless", genuinely not getting that both numbers were forecasts depending on what actions were taken. An extreme example of this is that you can easily find people saying "In the 1980's they claimed there would be an ice age and now they claim there is global warming, it's all BS" and genuinely not remembering that the "ice age" talk was a predicted outcome of a nuclear war, which obviously we didn't have. Nobody was predicting in the early 1980's that an ice age was going to happen on its own. But people remember vaguely something about an ice age being predicted and then apply their own bias to conclude that experts never know what they're talking about - unless you happen to agree with them, in which case they're totally brilliant.
I think this same kind of bias is in effect when people say "in bad flu years, it kills 5k people a month" and don't really connect that to the total number of people we can treat for a serious flu at one time; the influenza death rate already has baked in that we have hospital beds, respirators, PPEs for medical staff, drugs stocked, etc. to handle that many cases. What happens if a flu season happens to be 10x worse than usual? Well, read up on the 1918 flu season and you'll see why people are worried. It's a useful comparison partly because travel was much less, so we can look at St. Louis as an example of "best case" and Philadelphia as an example of "worst case" - again, this maps to "take it very seriously" vs. "shrug it off".
It appears to me that people are not very good at mentally keeping the different numbers associated with the different scenarios. People hear "best case: 100,000 deaths" and don't really get that "best case" means "if we ignore everything else and totally focus on the virus". In the same way, "worst case: 1,750,000 deaths" means "if we do nothing special and claim that it's just like the flu". In very short order you see people claiming online "only 100,000 people will die of this, it's not a big deal, ignore it" and genuinely not understanding the part about "if you ignore it, the number of deaths will be an order of magnitude greater". And of course every expert asked gives not a single number but a range for both best and worst cases.
Best-Case And Worst-Case Coronavirus Forecasts Are Very Far Apart
Infectious disease experts still consider a wide range of outcomes plausible.
Even if the experts' opinions were overall accurate, once this stabilizes you'll find plenty of people saying "They said 2 million people might die and that didn't happen, the experts are clueless" and plenty saying "They said only 100,000 people would die, the experts are clueless", genuinely not getting that both numbers were forecasts depending on what actions were taken. An extreme example of this is that you can easily find people saying "In the 1980's they claimed there would be an ice age and now they claim there is global warming, it's all BS" and genuinely not remembering that the "ice age" talk was a predicted outcome of a nuclear war, which obviously we didn't have. Nobody was predicting in the early 1980's that an ice age was going to happen on its own. But people remember vaguely something about an ice age being predicted and then apply their own bias to conclude that experts never know what they're talking about - unless you happen to agree with them, in which case they're totally brilliant.
I think this same kind of bias is in effect when people say "in bad flu years, it kills 5k people a month" and don't really connect that to the total number of people we can treat for a serious flu at one time; the influenza death rate already has baked in that we have hospital beds, respirators, PPEs for medical staff, drugs stocked, etc. to handle that many cases. What happens if a flu season happens to be 10x worse than usual? Well, read up on the 1918 flu season and you'll see why people are worried. It's a useful comparison partly because travel was much less, so we can look at St. Louis as an example of "best case" and Philadelphia as an example of "worst case" - again, this maps to "take it very seriously" vs. "shrug it off".
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Bottom line is, we are in a serious health crisis that will eventually go away if people only take social distancing seriously.
What we are witnessing today is............
Problem #1) how BROKEN our system truly is. With everyone losing their jobs, unemployment is the one viable alternative, if the systems ever stop crashing.
Problem #2) The CDC recommends that the public, if they need to go out, wear masks. These are not available anywhere! Why? Hoarders. A buddy of mine videotaped an FBI raid on a home of a Black Market seller in Queens, New York who was hoarding 190,000+ plus masks.
Problem #3) They tell you to constantly wash your hands, sanitize everything you touch. None of this is available again!
Problem #4) Most of the items in need are made in China!
Take care of yourselves, your family and each other and we'll all get thru this together.......
What we are witnessing today is............
Problem #1) how BROKEN our system truly is. With everyone losing their jobs, unemployment is the one viable alternative, if the systems ever stop crashing.
Problem #2) The CDC recommends that the public, if they need to go out, wear masks. These are not available anywhere! Why? Hoarders. A buddy of mine videotaped an FBI raid on a home of a Black Market seller in Queens, New York who was hoarding 190,000+ plus masks.
Problem #3) They tell you to constantly wash your hands, sanitize everything you touch. None of this is available again!
Problem #4) Most of the items in need are made in China!
Take care of yourselves, your family and each other and we'll all get thru this together.......
goneshootin
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The Comfort was brought up to NY so they could move non covid-19 patients to make room in the hospitals. It's not for show, it's up to NY to move the patients. Now it's been open for covid-19 patients so we will see how quickly it does or does not fill up now that we are supposedly at the peak.
According to NJ.com 44% of covid-19 deaths are people with underlying conditions, 670 cases are still under investigation. That accounts for 1212 of the 1232 deaths reported as of today.
CDC director downplays coronavirus models, says death toll will be 'much lower' than projected - ABC News
Meanwhile CBS news is airing some wacko nurse who hasn't worked in over a year, on TV crying about no PPE.
Check her out....yeah she's a reliable source.
Can you explain why in a time of high stress heart attack patients seem to have vanished?
www.nytimes.com
H1N1 was a pandemic that infected 60 million people, any thoughts on why we did not close down the country?
According to NJ.com 44% of covid-19 deaths are people with underlying conditions, 670 cases are still under investigation. That accounts for 1212 of the 1232 deaths reported as of today.
CDC director downplays coronavirus models, says death toll will be 'much lower' than projected - ABC News
Meanwhile CBS news is airing some wacko nurse who hasn't worked in over a year, on TV crying about no PPE.
Check her out....yeah she's a reliable source.
Can you explain why in a time of high stress heart attack patients seem to have vanished?
Where Have All the Heart Attacks Gone? (Published 2020)
Except for treating Covid-19, many hospitals seem to be eerily quiet.
H1N1 was a pandemic that infected 60 million people, any thoughts on why we did not close down the country?
goneshootin
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What pisses me off in when the governor of Michigan shut down the schools, told people they should stay at home, and then wouldn't tell the downstaters to stay down state and then the migration to their summer homes. So, they are spreading it through out our state now,
If you really want to know why H1N1 was totally different, you can find the answers in about a minute.
1. The CDC and other agencies were fully staffed by competent people, stockpiles of protective gear were full, and the agencies were on the lookout for new influenzas. We were ready for it.
2. The CDC and other agencies fully mobilized the week cases showed up in the US. No screwing around for a couple of months. No deferral of responsibility by the CDC to DHS or any newly-formed committee run by politicians and politician's in-laws. The first 2 cases resulted in full mobilization by actual medical agencies.
3. Within 2 weeks we knew that some of the existing and stockpiled antivirals were effective against it. No such luck with COVID-19, and it my be months more before we do.
4. Within 4 weeks of the first US case we had an immediate test for it. We still don't have one for COVID-19.
5. Fortunately, H1N1 turned out not to be as deadly as feared, and the antibodies against other influenzas that older adults already had were of some help with H1N1 resistance (which is why H1N1 hit younger people relatively harder).
1. The CDC and other agencies were fully staffed by competent people, stockpiles of protective gear were full, and the agencies were on the lookout for new influenzas. We were ready for it.
2. The CDC and other agencies fully mobilized the week cases showed up in the US. No screwing around for a couple of months. No deferral of responsibility by the CDC to DHS or any newly-formed committee run by politicians and politician's in-laws. The first 2 cases resulted in full mobilization by actual medical agencies.
3. Within 2 weeks we knew that some of the existing and stockpiled antivirals were effective against it. No such luck with COVID-19, and it my be months more before we do.
4. Within 4 weeks of the first US case we had an immediate test for it. We still don't have one for COVID-19.
5. Fortunately, H1N1 turned out not to be as deadly as feared, and the antibodies against other influenzas that older adults already had were of some help with H1N1 resistance (which is why H1N1 hit younger people relatively harder).
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And the model forecasts changing are exactly what the whole "flattening the curve" is about. Social distancing is explicitly intended to keep the number of hospital beds needed lower than the number available. It's an indication that what we're doing is working, not that it's unnecessary.
From this distance, I agree with your sentiment. However, if I lived in a hot spot and had a second home in a less affected area, I'd sure pack up my family and get the hell out.
It's the same thing in PA with people coming to their homes in the poconos from NY but I think the bigger issue is that people are still traveling back and forth to NYC by the busload to go to work.
The larger the "event" not just fireworks show, the more likely it will be cancelled. There is so much ground work to be laid, many of these events are running into deadlines now to pull off events in July. Sponsors are going to become scarce, or lower contributions, food vendors may not want to commit to perishable orders, entertainment/talent may not be willing to book gigs. There will be 4th of July cancellations, how many is the questions.
The problem is that these lesser areas have less chances of curing a squirrel more less a man. Then what happens when a tourist takes up a ICU bed and a local cannot get one because it is already taken.
Pyroblaster
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I'm starting to wonder if I'm going to be able to have my large family get together this year. Decided to develop a plan B and script 1 song for just the immediate family and neighbors. I think I found my plan B song.....