Premium members do not see any ads! Click here to learn more.

What are the Chances.......

My country has done a very poor job of reacting to the virus and the recorded infection rate in the USA is double Canada's by population. The death rate in the USA is 2.5 times that of Canada per recorded case. ParrotHead Pyro is correct that if the USA opens up without a plan that is better than what is available now the infection rate will soar and the hospitals will be overwhelmed which will cause the death rate to rise exponentially. The only reason that any statistics on this virus are going down is because of the social distancing. All social distancing does is slow the spread not stop it unless everybody social distances perfectly which is not possible because some people have to work. So to open up without killing hundreds of thousands to millions of people a different plan is needed than what is happening now.

We need to follow the science not the politics to come out of this with the lowest possible number of people dying.
 
Original numbers were over 2 million dead. New York wanted horrendous amounts of ventilators and turns out they needed 1 tenth of them. 1883 deaths yesterday attributed to the virus. Any given day 7700 people in the US die on any given day and every single day 1600 people die of heart disease. Something like 10 to 12 percent of the us have heart disease. When coronavirus is past we will still have 1600 people dying daily of heart disease. Yes, this is serious. Yes there are areas that are getting over run. They are the minority. I am not saying we should ignore it. I am saying we need to keep some things in perspective
 
I guess the question is how do you open it up and control the spread. If the spread is not controlled everything will just close up again.
 
This we can agree on.

Phased release, different for different parts of the country. Dont ramp transportation up to fast. Maybe do a sample of the population to catch anything that comes up? One suggestion I heard was to test everyone that goes to the dr for any reason.

Maybe free test with every 200 pyro purchase?
 
BigTopCanada said:
I guess the question is how do you open it up and control the spread. If the spread is not controlled everything will just close up again.
Click to expand...

the original reason the experts decided to close some businesses and push isolation wasn't to stop the virus but to try to keep the hospitals from being taxed beyond their capacity. Some people have moved the goal posts but the "flatten the curve" drive just extends the length of time people are being infected and not stopping it. at risk people are going to have to adjust to a "new normal" of super vigilant care to not expose themselves, working age healthy people are going to get back to working and living and hope that they have a strong enough anti-body to make them immune to being re-infected by the virus or a mutation of it again. Allowing a few healthcare people to control the entire economy is not exactly what you'd call "intelligent" and I think this will be the story in retrospect looking back on this in time. SARS arrived 17 years ago and no vaccine has been effective at stopping it so far.

the real interesting data will be seeing what is happening with grocery workers over time as to their health, i.e. some of the people the authoritarians "allow" to still work.
 
Oh Man! Looks like this is really happening.... :(

More than 1/2 my shows are Cancelled, what's left are Municipalities and I have low confidence in their future (nobody wants to be that Philadelphia Heath Director guy who said "go ahead and have the parade" in 1918). Even the High-End Country Clubs cancelled and they, of all places, had the space & resources to pull it off.

This Season might be a Total Bust!
 
It is, and the hope was for us that "postponements" would be the rule. Unfortunately, the prospects of a better situation in the future aren't all that great either so most have just cancelled (and much of this, maybe even more of this, might be budgetary concerns too and they're happy to have an excuse not to spend the money right now....)
 
Some shows have cancelled, others have rescheduled for the fall and still waiting on a few. Hopefully some municipalities will offer next years show without going out to bid
 
1590695545187.png

Why are we not looking at what was done in the countries that had success and follow their example.

I am currently looking at doing about 5% of the business I would usually do between now and the beginning of August.

I would be quite willing to endure 4 to 6 weeks of severe restrictions on movement rather than losing a year of business.

The current opening up will not result in a fully functioning economy for many reasons as we are seeing in the fireworks business.
 
Can you normalize that graph to include population? It's like the graphs that show US cases are super high compared to any single European country and follow Europe as a whole very closely. Or the graph that shows US deaths are about 50 percent of European deaths for the same population.
 
But of course,,, that chart presupposes that there are an equal amount of TESTS being done per/100K of population. The More you test the More "Cases" are revealed. So, to talk about the percentage of the population before 100% of the population has been tested means you can't define one countries effectiveness against another...
 
You can rationalize about the graph as much as you want. The fact remains, those countries smoked us (my country and yours) at controlling the virus.

Unless of course New Zealand, Taiwan and Australia are lying to us.

Here is a link to the interactive graphs in case anyone wants to try some comparisons.

www.ctvnews.ca

Coronavirus stats worldwide: Compare Canada and other key nations

Visit CTVNews.ca for an interactive look at the COVID-19 outbreak in key countries.
www.ctvnews.ca www.ctvnews.ca

It is a good thing to look at news from other countries that has not been filtered through our media. I am not talking just about Canada. I mean all countries. You just have to break out of the directed Google search results by specifying the domains of other countries and using their names.

Also the fireworks manufacturing hardly slowed down at all. I have containers arriving from that fully functioning economy that I can't sell here because we are in this bad situation with the virus. Their only problem economically is that the rest of the world is shut down and not buying as much of their stuff because of the virus.

I do not want to offend anyone. I understand that everyone is under stress from the current situation and there are strongly held political opinions. I am just watching the situation and I don't see an end anytime soon if both of our countries keep doing what they are doing now. It is invisible and we are its food. with no medicine or vaccine for it the only solution I can see is to starve it to death. That is what the countries who have been successful have done in one way or another.

Also I have a bunch of great new cakes that just came in and I would like nothing more that to get them out there for people to enjoy. They are cheap and fun. So you can see why I would like to see everybody healthy and back to regular life soon. By the way the link below is not advertising because I do not sell to the USA.

 
Last edited:
Blaster said:
But of course,,, that chart presupposes that there are an equal amount of TESTS being done per/100K of population. The More you test the More "Cases" are revealed. So, to talk about the percentage of the population before 100% of the population has been tested means you can't define one countries effectiveness against another...
Click to expand...

True to an extent, but this was more true a month ago. The US and presumably other countries are testing some of the same people (health care workers, for instance) repeatedly, so the number of tests does not map directly to the number of people tested. If all the numbers were being reported uniformly and accurately - and we know for sure that they are not, because some agencies have lumped together the antibody tests with the viral tests while others have separated them. But we are starting to get to statistically significant numbers of people tested, and the percentage of the population who have had the virus is not high. We are very far from herd immunity, if that even exists for this particular virus.
 
Last edited:
There is a decent amount of information here that is not being mentioned because it doesn'tfit the narrative. You can look at US as wim as other countries. You can also look at states, cases per day, deaths per day, compare US to other countries or US to Europe.

www.worldometers.info

COVID Live Update: 141,330,358 Cases and 3,024,604 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info

Last study I saw said that in areas of NY 25 percent of the people tested had anti bodies. Maybe we need 60 percent for herd immunity. Depending on your perspective you can claim 25 percen is nowhere near enough or you can claim we are nearly halfway there and on the right track. Both are true.
 
BigTopCanada said:
You can rationalize about the graph as much as you want. The fact remains, those countries smoked us (my country and yours) at controlling the virus.

Unless of course New Zealand, Taiwan and Australia are lying to us.
Click to expand...

Figures lie and liars figure. Go figure...……
 
Back
Top