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What are the Chances.......

BigTopCanada said:
Thinking about a problem objectively rather than from within a framework of strongly held opinions can lead to the truth.
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Yea but,, Garbage IN / Garbage OUT ~ right?

You consider yourself Objective???? (you drank the KoolAid as far as I can see, you have a very Clear Agenda that you're not hiding from anyone ;)

And because all stats & their reported, news come with an agenda attached, you HAVE to look for the flaw that was often in the basis for those numbers.

My two favorite examples of this are;

~AntiGunners ~ "A gun in the house is more likely to kill a family member than anyone else". So first, you have to Kill someone to get into that stat (you point it at an intruder and he runs-off - doesn't count) and Second, the Vast Majority of family deaths are from suicide (not like that's to be discounted but, it's not the message they're sending when used and the concept that all suicides by gun wouldn't have been successful with another means )

~AntiVaxxers ~ "Autism has risen Every Year for the past XXX". When the fact is that, every year there are more & more, previously diagnosed but not considered "Autism", redefined and brought under the Autism umbrella. They decide whole new groups of people are now Autistic and when the numbers go up want to make-out like there's a crises

Remember the ActUp guys in the 80's yelling "What are you going to say when your GrandMother dies of Aids???" And it will be Reagan's fault when she does...
 
Well here it is,,, for the first time in over 35yrs, and it's turned-out that the chances were actually pretty good that I'm not at a show :(

I guess back in March, when first I posed this question, I knew there was the possibility at least that the "Virus Situation" could effect my season, but the reality still comes as a bit of a shock. No show planning, no truck rental, no loading that truck, no going night-after-night to different venues to set-up and tear-down, my wife making all those sandwiches,,, Very Strange...
 
I'm feeling very lucky to have any shows, my normal ones on the 3rd, 4th, and 5th were all cancelled, but I got lucky enough to have one 4th show to help at, in addition to one small show last weekend. But there have been only a handful of shows around here, mostly drive-in shows, but there are more in the mountains. For once the beach has almost no shows, which is usually the place with the most shows. Now I am wondering if any of the shows that moved to Labor Day will actually happen then. It would be nice to know, as I have about 5 things scheduled then, and can't do them all, but planning for all of them is tough. If things continue, I doubt that many will happen, but I am afraid that I'll know which until the last minute.
 
Well Covid may have nearly shut down all pro shows in towns and cities across the US but consumer fireworks have never been more popular!! Once the final sales numbers are released would not be surprised if the industry sold over a billion dollars of fireworks this year. Stores in my region closed Friday and Saturday because they ran out of stock!! Never seen anything like it, just like the amount of people doing fireworks in the my neighborhood this year.
 
I certainly saw a lot of 1.4 fireworks everywhere in NC, especially on the 5th at a NC non-sanctioned 1.4 show done by some people we know.
 
And now the Labor Day shows are also cancelled...

These really are Historic Times I guess ;)
 
Just had a reschedule for November cancel
 
We just lost two Labor Day shows and they have already cancelled our Christmas Flotilla show in late Nov. So we had one or two shows around July, and that is it now for the entire year. So for us, this year is pretty much a complete bust. I doubt that any other shows will happen before 2021. Our normal NYE show is run by a group of old people who sponsor it and run the event, they of all people don't belong out. But I hope that this current spike will slow, and eventually we will either find real treatments (I think we will have some by Oct.), get a vaccine (hoppefully by the end of the year), or worst case, just build up herd immunity (who knows when, but Sweden's cases and deaths are slowly rapidly now.) I just hope the professional people on here can survive a year with almost no income, thankfully this is only a side job for me. Its still a loss for me, but I have a day job to fall back on, which has kept going. My heart goes to those who have lost their jobs, businesses, family, or lives in all of this. I have had three friends and family lose relatives during this, and it is so hard, as it is hard to even see your family in the hospital.
 
"Liking" your post isn't exactly the right sentiment, but I feel the same way. I'm now in my second year of retirement so I have been spared the economic impact, but many of my friends who have small businesses are suffering. I live in a college town and the local economy is based on a student population that won't be back this year.
 
Worked in hospitals last 20 years before retirement , soooooo lotta friends @ ground zero / front line . Word from them is their panic is past , yes some still testing positive but they are not as sick ? lost virulence ? idk ... we had healthy people who got flu shot then ended up on vent nx day many years . Why many are dying idk ......per media sooooo not so sure since hosp friends not seeing it ??..... their opinion is the shutdown is NOT warranted , total BS ...... . YES high risk comorbidity folks need take added precautions in exposure but that's their norm anyway ......... Yes nursing home folks are at great risk .......... imo that's their norm too . WE ALL KNOW the drill - social distance , masks , hand washing etc . Time to let freedom ring . Open businesses and let us decide our comfort level . For years I worked there were many occasions every year hospitals were full , on diversion etc and that NEVER made the news . IMO numbers are being pumped whether intentional , financial ,political, or just poor data ? In any event , we can't live in fear forever and there's no end in sight . My daughter (front line er supervisor ) says time for herd immunity . In any event flu & rsv season will be here in a minute . If alllllllllllll those folks are counted as covid too - imo we will never get govt restrictions lifted . Great grandbaby just went back to 5 days a week classroom @ school . Older grandbaby just flew back to notre dame after told classes would resume - then on arrival oopz changed our minds online only .......ITS MADNESS....
TOOOOOOO MANY peeps suffering financial slow DEATH by govt restrictions . We can decide for ourselves ........ and the political - stimulus tied to illegals vote or mail in voting ........ seriously time to see who is profiting from PANIC MODE RESTRICTIONS . It's uncharted territory for sure . soooooooooo instead of dictating LET PEOPLE DECIDE FOR THEMSELVES .......
 
You can open the economy all you want but it will not recover because many people will decide for themselves to not take the risk and do the things they would if the virus was not here. My wife and 2 members of my extended family have health problems that would almost certainly result in death if they became infected with the virus. The economic activity is reduced by all the people like me that have a lot to lose if they become infected. I would normally be on vacation right now spending money but I am not because of the risk to my family. Countries that made the decision to eradicate the virus as much as possible are the countries whose economies have recovered the most.
 
Yup, this. Sweden did not do the shutdowns that their neighboring countries did, had twice the death rate, AND has taken just as bad an economic hit as people decided for themselves to stay home. With the death rate holding at over 1000 per day in the U.S. (and this is likely an undercount, not an overcount), people are right to be careful. My family and friends, ages 60 and up, are certainly not about to resume restaurant dining, air travel, vacations, etc. anytime soon even if everything was open. I just chatted online two days ago with a soccer buddy I haven't seen in months; we bemoaned not being able to go out for dinner, but neither couple is going to do it. The more I read about people deciding for themselves that getting and spreading the virus is OK, the more cautious I become.
 
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I'm with zzzybil. Can't hide forever. I have a number of "high risk" family members who have contacted it and are all fine, very little symptoms. Have family that are Doctors and nurses and they feel it has been overblown. Not saying it can't be dangerous but no reason to panic and lock things down.

There is always going to be something dangerous out there, gotta let everyone decide for themselves. If you're afraid or high risk, stay home. Everyone wash there hands and keep distance if possible.

Everyone on this forum likes to shoot explosives for fun or profit, lots of people would say that's too dangerous as well.

Hope everyone gets to shoot at some point.
 
OK, so I don't want to overreact to this but,,, I started this by saying What are the Chances that this viral infection could effect the July 4th Season back in March. Now here we are and there's talk of Christmas cancellations!

What are the Chances that we're still effected enough by this pandemic that it could shut down the 2021 Season!!!!

I mean, there's certainly going to be some effect, the world has changed no doubt, and the logistics of product availability is going have an unknown effect for the next couple of years, but what of the small companies that aren't going to be able to make it until next year (and who could make it to another season if we don't have one next year)...

Who'd of thought back then, where we would end-up now :(
 
I think the product availability could be a huge issue though I only shoot for fun and don't have a real good understanding of how it works for those on the business side. I know it caused some supply issues but not sure how much. I do have a friend that is on the business side and he actually had a great year selling, his shows took a hit but he still did a number of smaller private shows. He did have an issue getting a few of his normal products but nothing drastic.

As for back to normal by next year... i would think (maybe it is me hoping) it will quiet down and that most will go back to doing shows and events. I think you'll still have some areas that are really restrictive but most places should be back to normal or closer to normal.

A effective vaccine could change things drastically but even without that I think things will shift to the normal side. You cannot go on like this forever, there will always be dangers, and a vaccine isn't a guarantee ( I do hope there is one though and feel there will be).

Hope everyone gets to shoot soon.
 
Regardless of the situation with the coronavirus, local governments will be in a pretty disastrous financial situation for at least a few years, so I would expect many shows to be cancelled due to that. When they're cutting essential services, closing swimming pools, and seeing a huge drop in sales tax revenue and high unemployment due to restaurant closings, it's hard to justify spending significant money on parties.
 
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